Formats and related files
The analysis was undertaken as part of the work to update Treasury’s long term fiscal modelling. As part of this a scenario analysis of the potential fiscal and non-fiscal benefits of social investment was undertaken and is described in ‘The benefits of improved social sector performance’, a detailed background paper to He Tirohanga Mokopuna, the Treasury’s long-term fiscal statement (LTFS).
The paper provides information about how we used data from SNZ’s Integrated Data infrastructure (IDI) to inform the scenario analysis.
The paper also provides a descriptive picture of potential non-fiscal outcomes relating to the same scenarios. The results of this work have been incorporated into He Tirohanga Mokopuna and the background papers but this report is being made available for those interested in more of the details behind some of the scenario analysis.
The views, opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this report are strictly those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the New Zealand Treasury, Statistics New Zealand or the New Zealand Government. The New Zealand Treasury and the New Zealand Government take no responsibility for any errors or omissions in, or for the correctness of, the information contained in this Analytical Paper.
The results in this report are not official statistics, they have been created for research purposes from the Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) managed by Statistics New Zealand.
Access to the anonymised data used in this study was provided by Statistics NZ in accordance with security and confidentiality provisions of the Statistics Act 1975. Only people authorised by the Statistics Act 1975 are allowed to see data about a particular person, household, business or organisation and the results in this paper have been confidentialised to protect these groups from identification.
Careful consideration has been given to the privacy, security and confidentiality issues associated with using administrative and survey data in the IDI. Further detail can be found in the Privacy impact assessment for the Integrated Data Infrastructure available from www.stats.govt.nz.
The results are based in part on tax data supplied by Inland Revenue to Statistics NZ under the Tax Administration Act 1994. This tax data must be used only for statistical purposes, and no individual information may be published or disclosed in any other form, or provided to Inland Revenue for administrative or regulatory purposes.
Any person who has had access to the unit-record data has certified that they have been shown, have read, and have understood section 81 of the Tax Administration Act 1994, which relates to secrecy. Any discussion of data limitations or weaknesses is in the context of using the IDI for statistical purposes, and is not related to the data's ability to support Inland Revenue’s core operational requirements.
Table of Contents
- Executive summary
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Non-fiscal indicators
- 3 Calculating risk at a micro-data level
- 4 Projecting fiscal costs at a micro-data level
- 5 Summary
- Appendix 1: Study population and definitions
- Appendix 2: Non-fiscal indicators
- Appendix 3: Dial graphs
- Appendix 4: Family welfare history diagram