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Information release

Regular Reviews - Treasury's Forecasting Performance Information Releases

Issue date: 
Thursday, 26 May 2016
Status: 
Current
Corporate author: 

The Treasury carries out regular analysis of its economic forecasting performance. A new report analysing the performance of forecasts up to and including the 2015 Budget has now been released. 

The key findings of this latest report are:

  • the accuracy of forecasts of real and nominal GDP growth and tax revenue has improved over the past few years;
  • the accuracy of forecasts of CPI inflation has declined a little recently, during a period of persistently-low inflation; and
  • when compared to other forecasters of the New Zealand economy, the Treasury’s forecasts of real GDP growth and CPI inflation are amongst the most accurate.

A summary of the full report can be found on the 2016 Budget website - Summary of Analysis of the Treasury's Macroeconomic and Tax Forecast Accuracy [2016 Report]

Note that the Reviews and Steps to Improve Forecast Accuracy information release includes material from 2005 and 2007 that supplements these regular reviews.

Most documents are available in Adobe PDF format. HTML versions of documents can be supplied on request from Information Services at the Treasury.
Using PDF Files
Doc. Date Type Title View/Download
26 May 2016 Treasury Report Analysis of the Treasury's Macroeconomic and Tax Forecast Accuracy [2016 Report]
Released 26 May 2016

10 Jun 2013 Treasury Report Analysis of the Treasury's Macroeconomic and Tax Forecast Accuracy [2013 Report]
Released 10 June 2013

7 Jul 2011 Treasury Report Treasury's Forecasting Performance [2011 Report]
Released 12 July 2011
tsyforperf11.pdf (193 KB)
8 May 2009 Treasury Report Treasury's Forecasting Performance [2008 Report]
Released 8 May 2009

8 May 2009 Summary Treasury's Forecasting Performance 2008
Released 8 May 2009. Summary of the main report with graphs and charts.

25 Nov 2005 Treasury Report Treasury's Forecasting Performance November 2005 Report
Released November 2005

Nov 2004 Summary

Treasury's Forecasting Performance
Released 26 November 2004. Short summary.

26 Nov 2004 Treasury Report

Treasury's Forecasting Performance
Released 26 November 2004

31 Mar 2003 Treasury Report

Treasury's Forecasting Performance
Released 4 April 2003

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Last updated: 
Thursday, 26 May 2016