Deputy Secretary to the Treasury
The Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the five months ended 30 November 2010 were released by the Treasury today.
The monthly financial statements are compared against monthly forecast tracks based on the 2010 Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update published in December 2010.
The financial statements show that in the first five months of the financial year overall core Crown tax revenue was very close to forecast at $20.5 billion, $27 million or 0.1% above forecast. Within this result, revenue from source deductions (PAYE) was $185 million or 2.1% higher than forecast, while corporate tax revenue was $179 million or 7.2% lower than forecast. While the Treasury’s judgement is that the corporate tax variance is likely to be timing in nature, it is too early to predict whether the PAYE variance will persist.
Core Crown expenses were $272 million lower than forecast due to individually small variances across a number of departments.
The operating balance before gains and losses was largely in line with forecast at a deficit of $5.8 billion. Including gains and losses, the operating balance was $2.5 billion in deficit, $2.3 billion or 47.9% less than forecast. This variance is due to gains recorded by NZS Fund and ACC. The NZS Fund recorded gains in its investment portfolio that were $1 billion higher than forecast, while ACC recorded an actuarial gain on their outstanding claims liability of $0.5 billion, $1.3 billion above their forecast actuarial loss.
The residual cash deficit at $9.1 billion was largely in line with forecast.
|Year to date||Full Year|
|Core Crown tax revenue||20,498||20,471||27||0.1||52,527|
|Core Crown revenue||22,396||22,674||(278)||(1.2)||58,446|
|Core Crown expenses||27,507||27,779||272||1.0||70,560|
|Core Crown residual cash||(9,139)||(9,320)||181||1.9||(15,602)|
|as a percentage of GDP||31.9%||31.1%||33.1%|
|as a percentage of GDP||18.8%||18.9%||20.6%|
|Operating balance before gains and losses||(5,773)||(5,879)||106||1.8||(11,098)|
1 Using GDP for the year ended 30 September 2010 of $190,740 million (Source: Statistics New Zealand)
2 Using forecast GDP for the year ended 30 June 2011 of $203,876 million (Source: Treasury)
3 Gross sovereign-issued debt excluding settlement cash and Reserve Bank bills
4 Net core Crown debt excluding student loans and other advances
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