Deputy Secretary to the Treasury
The Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the ten months ended 30 April 2011 were released by the Treasury today.
The monthly financial statements are compared against monthly forecast tracks based on the 2011 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update published on 19 May 2011.
The overall results for the period were close to forecast but there was a significant difference between the forecast and actual outturn for gross debt as outlined below.
Core Crown revenue in the ten month period stood at $46.4 billion (0.2% below forecast), with Core Crown tax revenue at $42.3 billion (also 0.2% lower than anticipated).
Core Crown expenses of $56.3 billion were 0.9% or $525 million below forecast with most departments continuing to report some under expenditure against their forecasts.
The operating balance deficit before gains and losses, at $10.9 billion, was 3.6% smaller than expected largely as a result of the lower than forecast expenses. The deficit is forecast to grow by $5.8b in the next two months to $16.7b by 30 June. The growth in the deficit is largely a result of sharp increases in forecast expenses, most notably earthquake related costs, the weathertight homes assistance package and costs associated with the ETS. There is some risk in both the timing and quantum of these expenses.
Gross debt was $2.9 billion or 4.2% higher than forecast due to a number of factors, the most significant of which were:
- considerable valuation movements as a result of higher than forecast exchange rates. The New Zealand exchange rate has been at or near record highs recently which caused derivative liabilities to be $824 million greater than expected and also contributed to derivative asset values being significantly above forecast, which required increased collateral of $759 million to hedge this risk
- Treasury bills’ issuance also remaining ahead of forecast (by $751 million) due to stronger than anticipated demand.
At $71.6 billion or 36.8% of GDP, gross debt was $19.6 billion higher than the same time last year. As a result of the higher debt position, finance costs for the ten months ended 30 April 2011 were $559m higher than in the same period last year.
The movements in gross debt were net debt neutral meaning that at 30 April 2011, net debt was close to forecast at $41.5 billion or 21.3% of GDP.
|Year to date||Full Year|
|Core Crown tax revenue||42,328||42,414||(86)||(0.2)||51,189|
|Core Crown revenue||46,448||46,527||(79)||(0.2)||56,950|
|Core Crown expenses||56,287||56,812||525||0.9||72,794|
|Core Crown residual cash||(14,692)||(15,076)||384||2.5||(14,951)|
|as a percentage of GDP||36.8%||35.3%||35.8%|
|as a percentage of GDP||21.3%||21.5%||20.8%|
|Operating balance before gains and losses||(10,920)||(11,326)||406||3.6||(16,728)|
1 Using GDP for the year ended 31 December 2010 of $194,629 million (Source: Statistics New Zealand)
2 Using forecast GDP for the year ended 30 June 2011 of $199,819 million (Source: Treasury)
3 Gross sovereign-issued debt excluding settlement cash and Reserve Bank bills
4 Net core Crown debt excluding student loans and other advances
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