Paul Helm, Chief Government Accountant
The Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the eleven months ended 31 May 2018 were released by the Treasury today.The statements are compared against forecasts based on the 2018 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU 18) published on 17 May 2018.
Core Crown tax revenue at $73.5 billion for the eleven months to 31 May 2018, was close to forecast. Source deductions were $0.3 billion above forecast, with recent data releases indicating that the labour market may be a little stronger than was forecast in the 2018 Budget. Corporate tax was below forecast by $0.2 billion, mainly owing to seasonal fluctuations in provisional tax assessments, which are expected to reverse in June.
Core Crown expenses at $73.0 billion were $0.4 billion lower than forecast. This variance was spread across a number of different departments.
The operating balance before gains and losses (OBEGAL) was a surplus of $5.2 billion. This was higher than forecast by $0.4 billion, with favourable core Crown results being partially offset by higher than expected Crown entity insurance claim costs.
When gains and losses are added to the OBEGAL result, the operating balance was a $7.9 billion surplus, $0.5 billion less than forecast. This result flows directly into net worth attributable to the Crown which was $0.4 billion below forecast at $118.6 billion.
Core Crown residual cash was a surplus of $1.2 billion, $0.9 billion above forecast. This was largely attributable to operating payments being $0.7 billion below forecast. Core Crown tax receipts were ahead of forecast by $0.2 billion, with all tax types favourable to forecast except GST.
Net core Crown debt was $57.5 billion as at 31 May 2018, $1.1 billion lower than forecast largely as a result of the core Crown residual cash result. As a percentage of GDP, net debt was 20.1%, close to the forecast of 20.4%. Gross debt at $87.4 billion was $0.9 billion above forecast largely due to unsettled trades that are expected to reverse and the value of derivative liabilities held increasing.
Total borrowings at 31 May were $112.9 billion, $2.7 below forecast, primarily due to Reserve Bank Bills and SOE borrowings being below forecast.
|$ million||Year to date||Full Year|
to BEFU 18
to BEFU 18
|Core Crown tax revenue||73,493||73,451||42||0.1||79,537|
|Core Crown revenue||79,479||79,246||233||0.3||85,959|
|Core Crown expenses||73,018||73,457||439||0.6||81,720|
|Core Crown residual cash||1,243||341||902||264.5||(1,255)|
|as a percentage of GDP||30.5%||30.2%||30.1%|
|as a percentage of GDP||20.1%||20.4%||20.8%|
|Operating balance before gains and losses||5,228||4,781||447||9.3||3,141|
|Net worth attributable to the Crown||118,576||118,965||(389)||(0.3)||117,649|
- Using the most recently published GDP (for the year ended 31 March 2018) of $286,410 million (Source: Statistics New Zealand).
- Favourable variances against forecast have a positive sign and unfavourable variances against forcase have a negative sign.
- Using BEFU 18 forecast GDP for the year ending 30 June 2018 of $291,020 million (Source: the Treasury).
- Gross sovereign-issued debt excluding settlement cash and Reserve Bank bills.
- Net core Crown debt excluding student loans and other advances. Net debt may fluctuate during the year largely reflecting the timing of tax receipts.
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