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Media statement

Interim Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the Ten Months Ended 30 April 2019

Issue date: 
Thursday, 6 June 2019
Corporate author: 
Document Date: 
Thursday, 6 Jun 2019
Publication category: 
Fiscal year: 
2018/19

The interim Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the ten months ended 30 April 2019 (the financial statements) were released by the Treasury today.  The financial statements are compared against forecasts based on the Budget Economic and Fiscal Update 2019 (BEFU 2019) published on 30 May 2019.

Results can fluctuate from month to month, due to a number of factors, such as timing.  This is particularly relevant for tax revenue this month. We are doing analysis to determine the key drivers of this variance from the BEFU 2019 forecast. We are aware some of these are timing differences, particularly in GST, underlying strength in profits and the income tax revenue estimates from the new system. The Treasury and Inland Revenue are continuing to do more analysis on the April results and for the May 2019 financial statements. At this stage, the year-to-date results do not necessarily indicate a significant deviation from the full year expected results.

Core Crown tax revenue of $71.1 billion was $2.3 billion (3.3%) above forecast. Within this, other individuals tax was $0.9 billion (24.1%) above forecast, corporate tax $0.6 billion (4.8%) and GST $0.5 billion (2.6%) above forecast. These variances were caused by a combination of:

  • some higher-than-forecast revenue relating to previous tax years, due to higher terminal tax revenue than forecast, which will likely persist until year end
  • higher-than-expected income tax revenue in relation to the transition to the new IRD system used to calculate tax revenue. As this is the first set of data from the new system, it is unclear how much of this variance may impact on the 30 June 2019 results, and
  • Portfolio Investment Entity (PIE) tax was approximately $0.2 billion above forecast, as PIE profits for the year to March 2019 were higher than was forecast in the BEFU 2019.

Core Crown expenses of $70.9 billion were $0.3 billion (0.4%) below forecast. Of this, $0.3 billion related to education expenses which were lower than forecast as a result of demand-driven factors across the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors. 

The operating balance before gains and losses (OBEGAL) was a surplus of $5.2 billion, $2.6 billion higher than forecast.  This was primarily due to the core Crown tax result discussed above.

When total gains and losses are added to the OBEGAL result, the operating balance (excluding minority interests) was a $0.8 billion surplus, $2.9 billion higher than forecast. Total net losses were $4.5 billion, largely due to decreases in the discount rate (used to value long term liabilities in today’s dollars) and favourable movements in exchange rates.

Core Crown residual cash was a deficit of $5.3 billion, that was $0.6 billion less than forecast due mainly to core Crown tax receipts being $0.3 billion higher than forecast and operating payments being $0.3 billion less than forecast.

Net core Crown debt at $62.3 billion, or 21.2% of GDP was $1.1 billion less than forecast as a result of the core Crown residual cash result discussed above and also circulating currency being $0.3 billion higher than forecast.

Gross debt at $86.0 billion was $2.0 billion higher than forecast. $1.5 billion of this related to unsettled trades. The rest of the variance is due to movement in the value of derivatives.

Net worth attributable to the Crown at $130.9 billion (44.6% of GDP) was $2.8 billion higher than the forecast largely due to the higher than forecast operating balance result.

$ million Year to date Full Year
April 2019
Actual1
April 2019
BEFU 2019
Forecast1
Variance2
BEFU 2019
Variance
BEFU 2019
%
June 2019
BEFU 2019
Forecast3
Core Crown          
Core Crown tax revenue 71,073 68,821 2,252 3.3 84,650
Core Crown revenue 77,029 74,665 2,364 3.2 91,599
Core Crown expenses 70,852 71,132 280 0.4 87,300
Core Crown residual cash (5,341) (5,916) 575 9.7 (2,785)
Net core Crown debt4 62,277 63,398 1,121 1.8 60,299
as a percentage of GDP 21.2% 21.6%     20.1%
Gross debt5 86,023 84,069 (1,954) (2.3) 83,287
as a percentage of GDP 29.3% 28.7%     27.8%
Total Crown          
Operating balance before gains and losses 5,170 2,560 2,610 102.0 3,465
Operating balance (excluding minority interests) 848 (2,060) 2,908 141.2 (284)
Total borrowings 112,111 112,530 419 0.4 112,057
Net worth attributable to the Crown 130,907 128,086 2,821 2.2 129,999
  1. Using the most recently published GDP (for the year ended 31 December 2018) of $293,233 million (Source: Stats NZ).
  2. Favourable variances against forecast have a positive sign and unfavourable variances against forecast have a negative sign.
  3. Using BEFU 19 forecast GDP for the year ending 30 June 2019 of $299,713 million (Source: The Treasury).
  4. Net core Crown debt excluding student loans and other advances. Net debt may fluctuate during the year largely reflecting the timing of tax receipts.
  5. Gross sovereign-issued debt excluding settlement cash and Reserve Bank bills.

ENDS

Enquiries

Jayne Winfield | Office of the Government Accountant
Tel: +64 4 890 7205
Email: fiscalreporting@treasury.govt.nz
Last updated: 
Thursday, 6 June 2019