A summary of proceedings of the first session of the Long-term Fiscal External Panel is now publicly available. The Panel met recently to examine New Zealand's fiscal reporting framework and the modelling assumptions used in preparing long-term projections of the Crown's finances.
The first meeting of the Panel, which was established earlier this year to challenge and test the Treasury's approach to its next Long-term Fiscal Statement, focused on six inter-related issues:
- The requirements for fiscal sustainability;
- The framework used to evaluate the sustainability of the Crown's finances over time;
- Initial projections from Treasury's Long-Term Fiscal Model (LTFM);
- The demographic and economic assumptions used in the LTFM;
- An assessment of the impact of demographic change on taxation revenue; and,
- Other factors that may impact on New Zealand's economic and fiscal positions in the future.
The summary, which includes advice about where the Treasury might strengthen its analysis, is available at: Panel Session 1 (VUW website)
Six research papers, which formed the basis of most of the Panel's deliberations at its first session, are also available via the above site or from the Treasury website's Session 1 page.
Background Note for Chief Reporters
Research papers discussed at External Panel monthly meetings will be published after each meeting, together with a summary of proceedings. It is important to note that these are draft works-in-progress. The analysis may be refined, amended or strengthened in response to feedback from the Panel, and from other peer-review processes, prior to being used in the Treasury next Long-term Fiscal Statement in March 2013.
The independent External Panel, chaired by Pro Vice-Chancellor and Dean of Victoria Business School Professor Bob Buckle, was established to test and challenge the Treasury's initial research as it works to finalise its next Long-term Fiscal Statement.
The Panel next meets in Wellington on Wednesday 26 September and an agenda for that meeting will be posted prior to that meeting.
Journalists interested in arranging an interview with Professor Buckle please in the first instance contact Chris Ritchie (021) 252 9478 or by email at Chris.Ritchie@treasury.govt.nz
- Long-Term Fiscal External Panel (VUW website)
- Session 1 - Fiscal Framework and Projections - Long-Term Fiscal External Panel (Treasury website)