Formats and related files
John Creedy, Dharma Dharmalingam, John Janssen, and Veronica Jacobsen provided helpful comments on earlier versions of this paper.
The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the New Zealand Treasury. The paper is presented not as policy, but with a view to inform and stimulate wider debate.
Table of Contents
- 1 Introduction
- 2 A framework for assessing demographic sensitivity tests on policy models
- 3 Fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions exclude random shocks
- 4 ‘Low-low or ‘high-high’ variants are not calculated
- 5 Variants’ rankings differ with the outcome considered
- 6 Fertility only changes early in the projection period
- 7 A solution: Stochastic population projections
- 8 References