Back to top anchor
Working paper

Social Expenditure in New Zealand: Stochastic Projections (WP 13/06)

Issue date: 
Wednesday, 6 March 2013
Status: 
Current
View point: 
Document Date: 
Publication category: 
JEL classification: 
E61 - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
H50 - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General
J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
ISBN: 
978-0-478-40301-5

Formats and related files

This paper presents stochastic projections for 13 categories of social spending in New Zealand over the period 2011-2061.

Abstract

This paper presents stochastic projections for 13 categories of social spending in New Zealand over the period 2011-2061. These projections are based on detailed demographic estimates covering fertility, migration and mortality disaggregated by single year of age and gender. Distributional parameters are incorporated for all of the major variables, and are used to build up probabilistic projections for social expenditure as a share of GDP using simulation methods, following Creedy and Scobie (2005). Emphasis is placed on the considerable uncertainty involved in projecting future expenditure levels.

This Working Paper is available in Adobe PDF and HTML. Using PDF Files

Acknowledgements

We are grateful to Christopher Ball, John Bryant and Nicola Kirkup for comments on an earlier version of this paper.

Disclaimer

The views, opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this Working Paper are strictly those of the author(s). They do not necessarily reflect the views of the New Zealand Treasury or the New Zealand Government. The New Zealand Treasury and the New Zealand Government take no responsibility for any errors or omissions in, or for the correctness of, the information contained in these working papers. The paper is presented not as policy, but with a view to inform and stimulate wider debate.

Last updated: 
Wednesday, 6 March 2013